Donald Trump’s escalating rhetoric makes many likely Iowa Republicans more likely to back him

© Copyright 2023, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co. 

As former President Donald Trump seeks the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, he has laid out his vision for a second term that includes locking up political opponents, conducting sweeping immigration raids and searching for replacements for Obamacare. 

On the campaign trail, he has engaged in harsh rhetoric to describe political enemies as “radical thugs that live like vermin,” said that immigrants who enter the U.S. illegally are “poisoning the blood” of the U.S., touted himself as “the only one who will prevent World War III” and suggested suspending parts of the Constitution because of the “stolen” 2020 presidential election. 

There is not evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 election, a claim the former president has repeatedly made on the campaign trail.

The former president’s comments have ignited concerns from critics and scholars who have warned that a second Trump administration threatens democracy – even as his advisers push back on those fears, dismissing them as baseless. 

Many likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers have no issue with several of Trump’s recent statements, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll has found, and, more often than not, they say the same statements make them more likely to support the former president. 

Holly Rice, a 57-year-old poll respondent from Cumming, Iowa, said she was backing Trump for his policy agenda, saying “I don’t care what he tweets.” 

“It’s a little off the wall, but you know? A lot of them do stuff like that,” Rice said. “At least we know he’s not a polished politician. He reminds me of my father.” 

Likely Republican caucusgoers were asked about eight recent statements Trump has made on the campaign trail, asking if what he said makes them more or less likely to support him in the caucuses or if it doesn’t matter. 

The poll of 502 likely GOP caucusgoers was conducted Dec. 2-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. 

J. Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co. who conducts the Iowa Poll, said the questions were designed to determine “whether there is any sense that these are problematic for likely caucusgoers.” 

“They don’t seem to be given pause,” Selzer said of likely caucusgoers. “They’re more likely to support because of these utterances.” 

How Republicans responded to Trump on locking up opponents, replacing Obamacare & more 

For five of the eight statements tested, a plurality of likely caucusgoers say Trump’s words make them more likely to support him in the caucuses. 

Trump’s comment that he is “seriously looking at alternatives to Obamacare” prompts 55% of likely caucusgoers to say they are more likely to support the former president, who for years has floated plans to “repeal and replace” the 2010 health care law.  

Poll respondent Rob Weissenfluh, 60, from Dike, Iowa, said he still remembers Sen. John McCain’s famous thumbs-down vote in 2017 that halted a Republican-led attempt to repeal key parts of the Affordable Care Act. He believes lawmakers should again revisit the law. 

“They’ve got to put some competition back into the system,” Weissenfluh said. “A government-run system, it’s going to do nothing but end up like a Canadian or European system. They pretend to give you good health care, and you pretend that you don’t want to get sick. So yeah, we need an alternative.” 

Trump’s pledge to authorize “sweeping raids, giant camps and mass deportations” prompts half of respondents to say they are more likely to support him. Trump has laid out aggressive plans to curb illegal immigration under his second term, including sending thousands of U.S. troops to the southern border and reviving a travel ban for several Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East. 

And he has gone even further when speaking about immigrants who enter the U.S. illegally, saying in an interview that they are “poisoning the blood” of America. Asked about that statement, 42% of likely GOP caucusgoers say it makes them more likely to support Trump. 

June Koelker, a 71-year-old poll respondent from Monticello, Iowa, said Trump’s immigration plans made her more likely to back him, but she answered she was "less likely” to support him for his statement about those who enter illegally “poisoning” the country.  

She said there is “nothing wrong” with immigrants who seek entry legally but expressed concern about America’s national security under the Biden administration’s current border policy. 

Trump’s declaration that he would have to root out “the radical left thugs that live like vermin” in the U.S. prompts 43% of likely Republican caucusgoers to say they are more likely to support him − words historians said echoed language used by fascist leaders like Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini. 

And Trump declaring that he is “the only one who will prevent World War III” makes 42% of likely caucusgoers more likely to support him. Trump has pledged to swiftly resolve ongoing wars in Ukraine and Israel. 

Rice said Trump is “good at getting people to come to the table,” citing his peace accords with Israel and tariffs on China as examples of negotiations with foreign leaders. 

“Maybe he can put it back together again, I don’t know,” Rice said. “You never know. But he’s the most likely one to be able to do that. It’s like negotiating a business deal.” 

Just one statement makes a plurality of likely caucusgoers less likely to support Trump: his suggestion that “fraud” in the 2020 election could justify terminating parts of the U.S. Constitution. Forty-seven percent of likely caucusgoers say that makes them less likely to support Trump. 

Trump calling himself “the most pro-life president in American history” effectively elicits a shrug from a plurality of those surveyed, with 41% saying it would not impact their support one way or the other. 

A similar share of likely caucusgoers (43%) say it doesn’t matter that Trump said he would have “no choice” but to lock up his political opponents. 

Haley and DeSantis supporters are far more concerned about Trump’s statements than his own supporters 

Likely Republican caucusgoers whose first choice for president is former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are far more likely than supporters of Trump to take issue with his recent statements. 

Supporters of Haley have the most negative reaction to all eight statements polled compared with Trump and DeSantis supporters. Backers of DeSantis fall between the Trump and Haley supporters on every statement but trend closer to Haley supporters than Trump supporters on their level of concern for all but two statements. 

For example, 71% of Haley supporters say they are less likely to support Trump because of his statement that he would have “no choice” but to lock up his political opponents; 52% of DeSantis supporters say it makes them less likely to support Trump.  

Just 12% of Trump supporters say his consideration of imprisoning political opponents makes them less likely to back the former president. 

Travis Webber, a 43-year-old independent from Creston, Iowa, who is leaning toward supporting Haley, said Trump’s past actions and remarks were “an embarrassment” to the Republican Party. 

“Running a campaign on revenge and retribution is not something I want any part of,” Webber said. 

DeSantis supporters side more closely with Trump supporters than Haley supporters on two issues:  “seriously looking at alternatives” to the Affordable Care Act and Trump’s claim to be “the most pro-life president in American history.  

Thirty-one percent of Haley backers say Trump’s pledge to look at Obamacare alternatives makes them less likely to support Trump. 

Just 7% of DeSantis supporters and 3% of Trump supporters say it would erode their support. 

On Trump’s “most pro-life president” claim, 38% of Haley supporters say it makes them less likely to support Trump, while 20% of DeSantis supporters and 4% of Trump supporters say the same.  

The former president's supporters take little issue with most of his recent statements: Just two resulted in more than 10% of Trump supporters saying the remarks make them less likely to support him.  

Trump having “no choice” but to lock up his opponents resulted in 12% of his supporters saying it makes them less likely to support him; his suggestion that “fraud” in the 2020 election justified terminating parts of the Constitution causes the most concern, with 22% of his supporters saying it makes them less likely to support him. 

Galen Bacharier covers politics for the Register. Reach him at gbacharier@registermedia.com or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier. 

About the Iowa Poll 

The Iowa Poll, conducted Dec. 2-7, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 502 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses. 

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,733 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.  

Questions based on the sample of 502 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.  

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.