Young Republicans are concerned about the climate. How will GOP candidates win them over?

WASHINGTON − In the days after a tropical storm ravaged Southern California and Hawaii faced a catastrophic wildfire that left more than 90 people dead, a young conservative voter posed a question to Republican candidates at the first GOP debate in August: How would they alleviate concerns that the party doesn’t care about climate change?

The response wasn't encouraging.

When the candidates were asked to raise a hand if they believed in human-caused climate change, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson was the only one to do so – and he quickly dropped it after his rivals began accusing one another to being too green.

But then businessman Vivek Ramaswamy exclaimed, “The climate change agenda is a hoax" − and many in the crowd booed.

“I think some people in that room are likely primary voters and I felt like they were like: ‘No, we're not there anymore. We are in a different place now as Republicans,’” said Heather Reams, 51, who runs a clean energy nonprofit and was in the Wisconsin audience that night.

While the GOP base remains steadfastly opposed to environmental protections and the overwhelming front-runner, former President Donald Trump, has promised to “drill, drill, drill” if he’s reelected, many younger Republicans are looking for conservative policies to address climate change, according to interviews and polling.   

Surveys by the Pew Research Center found that younger Republicans are more likely than older GOP voters to call climate change "at least a somewhat serious problem" and to agree human activity plays a role.

A poll by the American Conservation Coalition last year found that 37% of Republican voters ages 18 to 29 are "more likely” to vote for a candidate who supports immediate action on the climate − only 8% behind young voters across the political spectrum.

And while some presidential candidates, such as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, have largely moved away from outright climate change denial, many younger Republicans told USA TODAY the party’s candidates need to make climate a priority.

“My generation has seen the impacts of it," said 18-year-old Hadley Brown, a freshman at Harvard University. "Once you're affected by it for so long ... you expect other people with more power or more leadership to stop it − and it's not been stopped."

Climate change discussion has changed in electoral cycles

Climate and the environment weren’t always kryptonite for Republicans, said Ben Pendergrass, vice president of government affairs for the Citizens’ Climate Lobby.

In the 1988 presidential campaign, Republican Vice President George H. W. Bush, the eventual winner, called himself an “environmentalist” and warned about the “exceptionally hot weather” and how the land, soil and water support a “remarkable range of human activities.”  

As president, Bush established the Global Change Research Program, which coordinated federal research on climate change, and signed the Energy Act of 1992, which aimed to reduce dependence on oil and gas imports while providing incentives for renewable energy.

In 2008, Republican nominee John McCain favored “a global effort” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 60% below 1990 levels. “I believe climate change is real,” he said. “I think it’s devastating.” The conservative Arizona senator also supported carbon cap-and-trade legislation.

Then came 2010 and the rise of the populist Tea Party movement. Climate denialism and opposition to Barack Obama’s environmental agenda (along with a backlash to Obamacare) became rocket fuel for the Republican Party as it retook the House of Representative with a massive gain of 63 seats.

When Trump took office in 2017, he ridiculed climate change as a “hoax” and later said he didn’t believe the findings of a troubling climate report produced by his own administration.

Trump rolled back more than 100 environmental rules, including measures targeting air pollution and emissions, and withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, an international treaty to reduce greenhouse gases.

Heading into 2024, Trump continues to downplay climate change, wrongly telling interviewers and audiences that the earth's sea levels are expected to rise only one-eighth of an inch in total over the next 300 years. The federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects the seas along the American coastline to rise as much as 10 to 12 inches between now and 2050 − or one-eighth of an inch each year.

“He’s holding on to that oh-so-very 2010-ish style of disputing climate change, and it is also very outdated at this point – but he’s still wearing that style,” said Bob Inglis, a Republican former member of Congress from deep red South Carolina who runs the conservative climate group RepublicEn. 

Haley, Christie and others take different routes on climate change

But while Republicans have long been at best uncomfortable discussing climate change, Chris Barnard, 25, president of the American Conservation Coalition, a nonprofit dedicated to mobilizing young voters around environmental issues, said he has seen a shift in the past year or so. 

“They've come to realize that a lot of the conservative solutions that would help tackle climate change − whether it's unleashing nuclear energy or cutting government red tape that's holding back energy projects − that those are really good solutions,” Barnard said.

Some of Trump’s rivals have certainly taken that approach on the campaign trail. 

Haley has advocated for carbon capture, called for China and India to reduce their emissions and laid out an energy independence plan that includes promoting wind and solar energy. She also has vowed to boost oil production and said she would roll back on President Joe Biden’s “wasteful green energy subsidies and regulations.”

Isaiah Menning, 21, a senior at Dartmouth College, said he was drawn to Haley for her international approach to climate change. 

“If you look at places like India and China, these still-developing economies are by and large using coal in major ways and using other dirtier forms of fossil fuel,” Menning said. “If we can import cleaner fuels, like liquefied natural gas, to those places, that can be really key in displacing coal and making those emissions reductions.”

Haley, as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, led the initiative to pull out of the Paris Agreement, telling audiences it “placed too heavy a burden on American jobs.” 

Christie said at a town hall at Keene State College in New Hampshire this month that he wants to construct more natural gas pipelines, build new nuclear power plants and invest in solar and wind power. 

Brown, the Harvard freshman, said Christie’s climate record as New Jersey governor stands out, particularly his support for an Environmental Protection Agency decision in 2011 ordering a Pennsylvania power plant to reduce its emissions.

“I think that despite the fact that he really supports the fossil fuel industry; he has better climate change initiatives or policies than the others,” she said.

Hutchinson also has acknowledged that climate change is real, promised to “end the war on fossil fuels” and pledged to remove barriers to nuclear power. 

Ramaswamy and DeSantis still trivialize climate consequences

Brown said Ramaswamy went a “step too far” at the August debate, adding that his dismissal of climate change could be “potentially devastating” to the Republican Party's image − and his own.

At a town hall in New Hampshire this month hosted by American Conservation Coalition, the businessman acknowledged that climate change was real but reiterated his opposition to clean energy and other green policies. 

“At the end of the day, there still is a disconnect between his approach to climate change and what the science tells us we should be doing about the problem − and where young conservatives want candidates leading on a conservative response to climate change,” Barnard said.

Though Ron DeSantis opposes the shift to electric cars, would take the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement (which the Biden administration rejoined) and favors the fossil fuel industry, 25-year-old George Behrakis argues the Florida governor has had a strong environmental record in the Sunshine State, with funding to restore the Everglades and to address rising sea levels.

"You look at Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley … and some of the other candidates before they dropped out, I think (there’s) a lot of really good ground to work on and to continue building on whatever policies they might have introduced or supported – currently or in the past," said Behrakis, president of Young Conservatives for Carbon Dividends. “So I think there’s a lot of ground to work with.”

What GOP candidates need to do to win young voters over

But with Trump pulling more than 60% in national primary polls, climate-minded Republicans have nowhere to turn.   

"Ultimately, on the campaign level, young people are pretty hungry for a message of 'It's going to be OK, and here's the steps we can take,'" said Alina Clough, a grassroots volunteer with American Conservation Coalition.

Barnard said he wants more Republicans to talk to voters about the way climate change will affect them directly and solutions that will work specifically for their communities. "We still want to see them talk about this in a way that increasingly brings more young people and more independents into the conservative movement," he said.

On climate, the GOP’s generation gap is clear.  

A poll in August by the Pew Research Center found that 67% of Republicans under 30 prioritize the development of alternative energy sources such as wind and solar compared with 75% of Republicans ages 65 and older, who favor expanding oil, coal and natural gas.

Along those lines, Menning and Behrakis said they’d like to see more Republicans discuss streamlining the difficult permitting process for clean energy facilities. Certain federal permits can take months or years to be approved.

Beyond climate policy, however, young Republicans just want more space at the table to have these conversations with candidates.

“In order to be a party of the future, you need to have a plan to engage voters of the future and the voters who will be the voters 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years from now on the issues that they care about," Behrakis said. "And climate is certainly one of those issues.”

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