Iowa Poll shows most likely Republican caucusgoers aren’t wild about MAGA

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While former President Donald Trump has built a commanding lead with likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, less than half identify with his MAGA brand, according to a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll. 

Forty percent of Iowans who plan to caucus for Republicans Monday say they align with the MAGA identity, a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, which has sometimes become synonymous with conservative politics. 

Eighteen percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say they consider themselves “ultra MAGA,” and 22% say they identify as “just regular MAGA” supporters. 

But another 38% say they have neutral feelings about the MAGA movement, and 17% say they are “anti-MAGA.” 

Of the anti-Maga contingent, 60% plan to vote for U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has coalesced the never-Trump contingent into her camp of supporters. 

The poll of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 7-12 by Seltzer & Co. It has a margin of error plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. 

Throughout the campaign cycle, Trump has maintained a strong hold on Iowa. Just days before the Iowa Caucuses on Monday night, 48% of poll respondents say Trump is their first choice for president.  

Unsurprisingly, nearly three-fourths of likely Republican caucusgoers who describe themselves as either ultra or regular MAGA (72%) say Trump is their first choice for president.  

In addition, 60% of Trump supporters describe themselves as either ultra MAGA (31%) or regular MAGA (29%).  

Even among likely Republican caucusgoers who say they are neutral on MAGA identity, Trump earns a plurality of the first-choice vote for president (37%). 

Poll respondent Kristin Rumelhart considers herself an ultra-MAGA Republican and plans to caucus for Trump Monday. To the 40-year-old Panora resident, the MAGA identity is about having a leader with a strong voice on issues that are important to everyday voters, such as the economy, she said.  

Rumelhart, who owns a coffee shop called Crafty’s Coffee, said she believes too many voters and politicians have “watered-down” stances on those issues, offering no clear insight on their opinions. But Trump has strong opinions, making it clear what direction he plans to take the country if re-elected, she said.  

“I think having a core set of values is very important,” Rumelhart said. “You need to follow those core set of values as being a Republican or a Democrat to keep with what the party believes in, and to keep them separate. If you both start watering down what a Republican and a Democrat are, you’re both going to end up really close to the same spot.” 

Half of Nikki Haley supporters consider themselves anti-MAGA 

The 60% of anti-MAGA Republicans who support Haley highlight the momentum she’s gained among voters who are looking for an alternative to Trump.  

Half of those who support Haley as their first choice for president describe themselves as anti-MAGA. By comparison, only 17% of DeSantis supporters say they’re anti-MAGA. 

Though Haley has avoided aggressively criticizing the former president, she has worked to distinguish herself from Trump while campaigning in Iowa and other early primary states.  

In recent weeks, she has found popularity among those voters looking for an alternative to Trump.

And now that former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has ended his campaign, after openly attacking Trump throughout the 2024 presidential race, some political analysts say Haley will have a better shot at solidifying the “Never Trump” vote. 

Poll respondent Curtis Goodell, a 52-year-old Johnston resident, plans to support Haley on caucus night, saying he believes she’s the most electable Republican in a general election against President Joe Biden. 

Goodell also describes himself as “anti-Trump in every aspect.”  

“He’s done a million things that are just offensive to me, and I just don’t agree with the way he treats people,” said Goodell, who works in information technology at Principal, the Des Moines-based insurance company. 

Goodell also said Trump brings too many extreme views to the GOP party, saying he believes most voters fall somewhere closer to the middle of the political spectrum than the outer edges. 

“He’s changed the party a lot,” he told the Register. “I haven’t changed, my beliefs have not changed, but the party has completely changed in my view.” 

A majority of Ron DeSantis supporters are neutral on MAGA identity 

Among those who support DeSantis as their first choice for president, more than half (57%) say they are ambivalent on MAGA.  

Throughout his campaign, DeSantis has pitched himself to voters as a Trump-like candidate, but without the baggage.  

However, the Iowa Poll shows DeSantis hasn’t made inroads among likely caucusgoers who see themselves as ultra-MAGA or regular MAGA. He’s the first choice for president for only 10 percent of that group. 

Tricia Watson, a 51-year-old Altoona resident, is among those likely Republican caucusgoers who consider themselves neutral on MAGA. She also plans to support DeSantis in the caucuses on Monday. 

Watson pointed to the Jan. 6 insurrection, saying she sees the crowd that infiltrated the U.S. Capitol as part of the MAGA movement that has sometimes gone too far. While she doesn’t believe Trump is to blame for what happened Jan. 6, she said ultra-MAGA supporters took his statements “and ran with it.”  

“That’s not what I am or what that (movement) should be,” said the X-Ray technician who works at the Des Moines-based MercyOne health care system. “Make America Great Again should be making America great again, not this over-the-top driving around with flags flying that say ‘Trump’ or those people that have their line of boats on lakes. It’s crazy.” 

Still, Watson likes Trump as a presidential candidate, and if he’s the nominee, plans to vote for him over Biden. However, she said she does worry the divisiveness over Trump could mean more voters would instead opt for Biden, costing Republicans the election. 

Thirty-seven percent of those who say Haley is their first choice for president describe themselves as neutral on MAGA identity. 

Among Trump supporters, 29% are neutral on his trademark phrase.  

Michaela Ramm covers health care for the Des Moines Register. She can be reached at mramm@registermedia.com, at (319) 339-7354 or on Twitter at @Michaela_Ramm

About the Iowa Poll 

The Iowa Poll, conducted Jan. 7-12, 2024, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 705 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses. 

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 4,170 randomly selected voters from the Iowa Secretary of State’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.  

Questions based on the sample of 705 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.  

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom is prohibited.