ERCOT says the Texas electrical power grid is 'expected to handle' arctic blast

Editor's note: This story has been updated to correctly describe measures taken by the Public Utility Commission of Texas to help the electric grid withstand extreme weather conditions and to correctly name the commission.

The operator of Texas' electric grid expects the grid to handle the arctic cold front that's set to roll in Sunday evening, but energy experts caution that demand for power this year is likely to exceed that of past winters.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas expects there will be sufficient power to meet customer demand, citing 1,774 weatherization inspections completed since 2021, which are meant to improve the grid and help it withstand extreme weather conditions, the agency said in a statement to the American-Statesman. Measures taken include moving energy onto the grid earlier when extreme weather is anticipated, according to a statement from the Public Utility Commission of Texas.

The arctic blast, bringing the coldest temperatures of the current winter season, comes almost three years after millions of Texans lost electricity for days and about 250 people died in the winter storm of February 2021, when skyrocketing demand and widespread power generation losses pushed the Texas grid to the brink of a nearly statewide collapse.

At its quarterly meeting last month, ERCOT chief executive Pablo Vegas said the company is "as ready as we have ever been to deal with the challenges of the winter season.”

Energy experts agreed that the arctic blast, expected to be relatively dry, is less worrisome then the 2021 storm, though demand for electricity is forecast to hit new levels, as more than a million people have moved to Texas since the last storm.  

Luke Metzger, executive director of Environment Texas, a grassroots advocacy group, believes there is always a chance, albeit small, that the grid could struggle during extreme weather and trigger rolling power outages. But he thinks it is less likely since the electrical grid operator received a $60 million federal investment and prioritized power plant weatherization.

“However, the electric gas supply chain has largely avoided being weatherized, which remains ERCOT’s Achilles heel,” Metzger said, adding that he wishes ERCOT would take advantage of more options to improve the demands placed on the electrical grid, calling them “a huge missed opportunity.”

Doug Lewin, a longtime energy consultant, agreed that while energy supply has become a focus, especially since the 2021 freeze, he believes the lens should also be placed upon supply.  

“ERCOT’s forecast that it will transmit a record-breaking 80,000 mega-watts of energy is an enormous amount of power and it tracks back to an enormous amount of energy inefficiency,” he said, adding that insufficiently insulated homes, coupled with inefficient heating systems, further increases the risk of outages.

“I always like to remind people to not lose sight of the demand side of the equation, and the state’s lack of focus thus far.”